Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone D / Desenzano vs Pistoiese

Desenzano vs Pistoiese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Desenzano

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Pistoiese

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-111.3%0-24.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.0%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.7%2-17.4%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.7%3-12.8%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% — — —

Draw 32.6% — — —

Away win 26.7% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 12.7% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 16.9%

#3 1–1✓ 13.0%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Desenzano1.1

Pistoiese0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DESENZANO · PPG 2.13

PISTOIESE · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.13), Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Desenzano (H) 40.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pistoiese (A) 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Desenzano face Pistoiese in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Desenzano a 41% chance, the draw 33% and Pistoiese 27%, so Desenzano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Desenzano and 0.8 for Pistoiese (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Desenzano are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 2.13 for Pistoiese. This match finished 1-1.

Desenzano vs Pistoiese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone D Predictions