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Crema vs Correggese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Crema

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Correggese

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-111.1%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.5%1-113.3%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.0%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% — — —

Draw 32.7% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 17.8% — — —

BTTS 52.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0✓ 11.2%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crema1.2

Correggese1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CREMA · PPG 1.06

CORREGGESE · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Crema (H) 37.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Correggese (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Crema face Correggese in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crema a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Correggese 30%, so Crema are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Crema and 1.0 for Correggese (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crema are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.88 for Correggese. This match finished 0-0.

Crema vs Correggese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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