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Vogherese vs Caldiero Terme Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Vogherese

PPG 0.56 · HOME

0 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Caldiero Terme

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-117.0%0-214.4%0-38.1%0-4+5.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.3%1-28.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.1%2 2-01.8%2-13.1%2-22.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 56.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 20.1% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-6

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob49.5%

A 57% / xG 0.6-1.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.0%

#2 0–2 14.4%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vogherese0.6

Caldiero Terme1.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VOGHERESE · PPG 0.56

CALDIERO TERME · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Vogherese (H) 14.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Caldiero Terme (A) 56.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vogherese face Caldiero Terme in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vogherese a 14% chance, the draw 29% and Caldiero Terme 57%, so Caldiero Terme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Vogherese and 1.7 for Caldiero Terme (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vogherese are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.25 for Caldiero Terme. This match finished 0-6.

Vogherese vs Caldiero Terme Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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