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Varesina vs Breno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Varesina

PPG 0.63 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Breno

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.3%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.4%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.6%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% — — —

Draw 29.9% — — —

Away win 24.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 23.7% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varesina1.5

Breno1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VARESINA · PPG 0.63

BRENO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Varesina (H) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Breno (A) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Varesina face Breno in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varesina a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Breno 25%, so Varesina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Varesina and 1.0 for Breno (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varesina are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.75 for Breno. This match finished 2-2.

Varesina vs Breno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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