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Sondrio vs Real Calepina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sondrio

PPG 0.81 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Calepina

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.81) vs Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.8%0-28.8%0-34.8%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.9%2-16.3%2-25.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.4%3-12.3%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% — — —

Draw 29.8% — — —

Away win 41.5% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.8%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sondrio1.1

Real Calepina1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SONDRIO · PPG 0.81

REAL CALEPINA · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.81) vs Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Sondrio (H) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Calepina (A) 41.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sondrio face Real Calepina in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sondrio a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Real Calepina 42%, so Real Calepina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sondrio and 1.6 for Real Calepina (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sondrio are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.31 for Real Calepina. This match finished 5-1.

Sondrio vs Real Calepina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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