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Dundee Utd vs Dundee FC Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Dundee Utd

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dundee FC

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.6%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.6%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-16.9%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.8%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 49.5% 2.02 -1.4%

Draw 28.0% 27.8% 3.60 +0.8%

Away win 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -21.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Over 3.5 37.7% 35.7% 2.80 +5.6%

BTTS 58.5% 62.5% 1.60 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee Utd2.1

Dundee FC1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 1.41

DUNDEE FC · PPG 0.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.41) > Away POOR (0.65)

Win probability 1X2

Dundee Utd (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -1.4%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.8%

Dundee FC (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee Utd face Dundee FC in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee Utd a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Dundee FC 23%, so Dundee Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Dundee Utd and 1.0 for Dundee FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee Utd are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 0.65 for Dundee FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Dundee Utd vs Dundee FC Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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