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Genoa vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Genoa

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Como

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-112.0%0-29.6%0-35.1%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.5%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.7%2-15.9%2-24.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 22.5% 4.45 +28.2%

Draw 29.8% 27.4% 3.65 +8.8%

Away win 41.5% 57.5% 1.74 -27.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 26.1% 28.2% 3.55 -7.3%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 0–2✓ 9.6%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genoa1.0

Como1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GENOA · PPG 1.29

COMO · PPG 1.63

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.29) vs Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Genoa (H) 28.8%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +28.2%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +8.8%

Como (A) 41.5%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genoa face Como in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genoa a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Como 42%, so Como are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Genoa and 1.6 for Como (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genoa are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.63 for Como. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Genoa vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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