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Esbjerg vs Hillerod Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 25 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:30

Esbjerg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hillerod

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.8%0-26.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.3%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 41.0% 2.44 -9.5%

Draw 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -17.1%

Away win 37.4% 37.0% 2.70 +1.0%

Over 2.5 52.0% 52.6% 1.90 -1.2%

Over 3.5 29.9% 31.3% 3.20 -4.3%

BTTS 56.0% 60.6% 1.65 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob56.0%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Esbjerg1.4

Hillerod1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ESBJERG · PPG 2.00

HILLEROD · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.42)

Win probability 1X2

Esbjerg (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -9.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.1%

Hillerod (A) 37.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Esbjerg face Hillerod in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esbjerg a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Hillerod 37%, so Hillerod are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Esbjerg and 1.4 for Hillerod (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esbjerg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.42 for Hillerod. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Esbjerg vs Hillerod Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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