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Greuther F. B vs Wurzburger K. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern logo Germany flag Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern Bayern - 31 Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1· Fürth Sunday, April 26, 2026 12:00
Greuther F. B logo Greuther F. B PPG 1.00
1-5 MISS
Wurzburger K. logo Wurzburger K. PPG 1.93
Draw· +3.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Greuther F. B face Wurzburger K. in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greuther F. B a 15% chance, the draw 28% and Wurzburger K. 58%, so Wurzburger K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Greuther F. B and 2.0 for Wurzburger K. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greuther F. B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.93 for Wurzburger K.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 1-5.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 14.7%
Odds: 4.20 EV: -38.3%
Draw 27.6%
Odds: 3.75 EV: +3.5%
Away 57.8%
Odds: 1.68 EV: -2.9%
Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.4% Odds: 1.77 -3.7%
Over 3.5 31.1% Odds: 2.95 -8.3%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.70 -10.6%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2
2nd 0-1
3rd 1-1
4th 1-2
5th 0-3

Expected Goals (xG)

Greuther F. B
0.77
Wurzburger K.
2.05

Model Suggestion

Away -2.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -2.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+3.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%
O2.5/Under 59%
BTTS/No 51%
Score Hit 28%
ROI -0.4%
Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

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