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Greuther F. B vs Wurzburger K. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Greuther F. B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Wurzburger K.

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-112.3%0-212.6%0-38.6%0-4+7.0%1 1-04.6%1-19.4%1-29.6%1-36.6%1-4+5.4%2 2-01.8%2-13.6%2-23.7%2-32.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.7% 23.8% 4.20 -38.3%

Draw 27.6% 26.7% 3.75 +3.5%

Away win 57.8% 59.5% 1.68 -2.9%

Over 2.5 54.4% 56.5% 1.77 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.1% 33.9% 2.95 -8.3%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob52.6%

A 58% / xG 0.8-2.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.6%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–3 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greuther F. B0.8

Wurzburger K.2.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GREUTHER F. B · PPG 1.00

WURZBURGER K. · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Greuther F. B (H) 14.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -38.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +3.5%

Wurzburger K. (A) 57.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Greuther F. B face Wurzburger K. in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greuther F. B a 15% chance, the draw 28% and Wurzburger K. 58%, so Wurzburger K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Greuther F. B and 2.0 for Wurzburger K. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greuther F. B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.93 for Wurzburger K.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 1-5.

Greuther F. B vs Wurzburger K. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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