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Magdeburg B vs Carl Zeiss Jena Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Magdeburg B

PPG 1.33 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Carl Zeiss Jena

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.6%0-26.9%0-34.7%0-4+3.9%1 1-04.4%1-19.1%1-29.4%1-36.5%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.0%2-16.2%2-26.5%2-34.5%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 27.4% 3.65 -0.4%

Draw 28.2% 25.0% 4.00 +12.8%

Away win 44.5% 57.8% 1.73 -23.0%

Over 2.5 60.5% 69.0% 1.45 -12.3%

Over 3.5 45.1% 45.5% 2.20 -0.8%

BTTS 58.5% 69.0% 1.45 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob58.5%

A 44% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magdeburg B1.4

Carl Zeiss Jena2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGDEBURG B · PPG 1.33

CARL ZEISS JENA · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Magdeburg B (H) 27.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.4%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +12.8%

Carl Zeiss Jena (A) 44.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magdeburg B face Carl Zeiss Jena in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magdeburg B a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Carl Zeiss Jena 45%, so Carl Zeiss Jena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Magdeburg B and 2.1 for Carl Zeiss Jena (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magdeburg B are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.80 for Carl Zeiss Jena. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Magdeburg B vs Carl Zeiss Jena Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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