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Luckenwalde vs Zwickau Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Luckenwalde

PPG 1.27 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zwickau

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.3%0-26.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.4%1-112.1%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-17.8%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

Draw 30.4% 28.6% 3.50 +6.4%

Away win 33.2% 42.6% 2.35 -22.0%

Over 2.5 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Over 3.5 29.4% 35.1% 2.85 -16.2%

BTTS 58.5% 63.7% 1.57 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–1✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luckenwalde1.3

Zwickau1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LUCKENWALDE · PPG 1.27

ZWICKAU · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Luckenwalde (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -6.9%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.4%

Zwickau (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luckenwalde face Zwickau in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luckenwalde a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Zwickau 33%, so Luckenwalde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Luckenwalde and 1.4 for Zwickau (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luckenwalde are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.33 for Zwickau. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Luckenwalde vs Zwickau Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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