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Sassuolo vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 33 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:30

Sassuolo

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Como

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 63% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-112.8%0-212.7%0-38.4%0-4+6.6%1 1-04.9%1-19.7%1-29.6%1-36.4%1-4+5.0%2 2-01.8%2-13.6%2-23.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 20.0% 5.00 -33.5%

Draw 20.4% 25.6% 3.90 -20.4%

Away win 66.3% 61.3% 1.63 +8.1%

Over 2.5 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Over 3.5 29.5% 35.1% 2.85 -15.9%

BTTS 45.6% 57.8% 1.73 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob45.6%

A 66% / xG 0.8-2.0 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.8%

#2 0–2 12.7%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–3 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sassuolo0.8

Como2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.44

COMO · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Sassuolo (H) 13.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -33.5%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -20.4%

Como (A) 66.3%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sassuolo face Como in Italy - Serie A on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sassuolo a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Como 66%, so Como are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sassuolo and 2.0 for Como (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sassuolo are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.73 for Como. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Sassuolo vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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