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Chemnitzer FC vs Meuselwitz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Chemnitzer FC

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Meuselwitz

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.8%0-22.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.5%1-18.4%1-25.5%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.1%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.7%4+-24.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Draw 26.0% 27.0% 3.70 -3.8%

Away win 25.4% 29.0% 3.45 -12.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% 58.8% 1.70 +2.9%

Over 3.5 47.3% 36.4% 2.75 +30.1%

BTTS 58.5% 61.7% 1.62 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chemnitzer FC2.2

Meuselwitz1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEMNITZER FC · PPG 1.73

MEUSELWITZ · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Chemnitzer FC (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -10.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.8%

Meuselwitz (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chemnitzer FC face Meuselwitz in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chemnitzer FC a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Meuselwitz 25%, so Chemnitzer FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Chemnitzer FC and 1.3 for Meuselwitz (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chemnitzer FC are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.93 for Meuselwitz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Chemnitzer FC vs Meuselwitz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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