Henan SL vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

China - Super League Regular Season - 8 Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium· Zhengzhou Sunday, April 26, 2026 12:00

Henan SL PPG 1.33

0-3 MISS

S. Shenhua PPG 1.67

Draw· +6.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan SL face S. Shenhua in China - Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan SL a 29% chance, the draw 31% and S. Shenhua 40%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Henan SL and 1.5 for S. Shenhua (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan SL are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for S. Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.1%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -5.4%

Draw 31.4%

Odds: 3.40 EV: +6.8%

Away 39.5%

Odds: 2.04 EV: -19.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.4% Odds: 1.62 -18.4%

Over 3.5 26.1% Odds: 2.55 -33.5%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.50 -13.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Henan SL

1.10

S. Shenhua

1.49

Model SuggestionBTTS -13.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -13.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+6.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)