Today / China - Super League / Henan SL vs S. Shenhua

Henan SL vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Henan SL

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

S. Shenhua

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-111.2%0-28.3%0-34.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.6%2-16.8%2-25.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 30.8% 3.25 -5.4%

Draw 31.4% 29.4% 3.40 +6.8%

Away win 39.5% 49.0% 2.04 -19.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 61.7% 1.62 -18.4%

Over 3.5 26.1% 39.2% 2.55 -33.5%

BTTS 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.8%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan SL1.1

S. Shenhua1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN SL · PPG 1.33

S. SHENHUA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Henan SL (H) 29.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.4%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +6.8%

S. Shenhua (A) 39.5%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan SL face S. Shenhua in China - Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan SL a 29% chance, the draw 31% and S. Shenhua 40%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Henan SL and 1.5 for S. Shenhua (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan SL are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for S. Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Henan SL vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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