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Cordoba vs Sporting Gijon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Cordoba

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sporting Gijon

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.1%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.1%1-111.5%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 45.9% 2.18 -8.0%

Draw 29.1% 28.2% 3.55 +3.3%

Away win 28.8% 32.8% 3.05 -12.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Over 3.5 32.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

BTTS 58.5% 64.5% 1.55 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cordoba1.6

Sporting Gijon1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CORDOBA · PPG 1.47

SPORTING GIJON · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Cordoba (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -8.0%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +3.3%

Sporting Gijon (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cordoba face Sporting Gijon in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cordoba a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Sporting Gijon 29%, so Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cordoba and 1.3 for Sporting Gijon (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cordoba are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.94 for Sporting Gijon. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Cordoba vs Sporting Gijon Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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