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Dalian Yingbo vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:35

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 3.5 52% chance

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.5% vs bookmaker-implied 39.2% — a clear edge.

+110.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.6%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.3%1-12.2%1-22.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-02.5%2-14.5%2-23.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.4%3-15.9%3-25.2%3-33.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-117.2%4+-215.1%4+-38.8%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 59.5% 1.68 +3.8%

Draw 20.1% 27.4% 3.65 -26.6%

Away win 18.1% 22.2% 4.50 -18.6%

Over 2.5 79.5% 61.7% 1.62 +28.8%

Over 3.5 82.5% 39.2% 2.55 +110.4%

BTTS 65.5% 63.7% 1.57 +2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob65.5%

H 62% / xG 4.0-1.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 5.9%

#2 4–1 5.9%

#3 3–2 5.2%

#4 4–2 5.2%

#5 5–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Yingbo4.0

Yunnan Yukun1.8

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 82.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 3.00

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

52%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=61.8%

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Yingbo (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +3.8%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -26.6%

Yunnan Yukun (A) 18.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Yingbo face Yunnan Yukun in China - Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Yingbo a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Yunnan Yukun 18%, so Dalian Yingbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Dalian Yingbo and 1.8 for Yunnan Yukun (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Yingbo are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Yunnan Yukun. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +110.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Dalian Yingbo vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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