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Nomme Kalju vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Vaprus

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.8%1-10.6%1-20.1%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-04.9%2-11.5%2-20.2%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.8%3-12.7%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-057.3%4+-117.9%4+-22.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 91.9% — — —

Draw 6.9% — — —

Away win 1.2% — — —

Over 2.5 79.5% — — —

Over 3.5 81.8% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)5.4 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 92% / xG 5.4-0.3 / O2.5 80% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 12.7%

#2 4–0 11.8%

#3 3–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 4.9%

#5 5–1 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Kalju5.4

Vaprus0.3

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 81.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.50

VAPRUS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Kalju (H) 91.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 6.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vaprus (A) 1.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Vaprus in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 92% chance, the draw 7% and Vaprus 1%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.4 for Nomme Kalju and 0.3 for Vaprus (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.60 for Vaprus. This match finished 1-2.

Nomme Kalju vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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