Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Banga vs Hegelmann L.

Banga vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:15

Banga

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hegelmann L.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-12.8%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.5%1-15.6%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-020.6%2-15.6%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.7%3-13.8%3-20.5%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-13.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 8.3% — — —

Over 2.5 49.0% — — —

Over 3.5 19.6% — — —

BTTS 35.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob35.6%

H 68% / xG 2.0-0.3 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 20.6%

#2 1–0 20.5%

#3 3–0 13.7%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 4–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banga2.0

Hegelmann L.0.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGA · PPG 1.50

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Banga (H) 67.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hegelmann L. (A) 8.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Banga face Hegelmann L. in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banga a 68% chance, the draw 24% and Hegelmann L. 8%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Banga and 0.3 for Hegelmann L. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banga are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Hegelmann L.. This match finished 2-1.

Banga vs Hegelmann L. Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions