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C. Zmijavci vs Rudes Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:15

C. Zmijavci

PPG 1.08 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rudes

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.8%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.6%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.0%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 33.3% 3.00 +13.4%

Draw 32.7% 34.5% 2.90 -5.2%

Away win 29.5% 44.4% 2.25 -33.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

C. Zmijavci1.2

Rudes1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

C. ZMIJAVCI · PPG 1.08

RUDES · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

C. Zmijavci (H) 37.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +13.4%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -5.2%

Rudes (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

C. Zmijavci face Rudes in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives C. Zmijavci a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Rudes 30%, so C. Zmijavci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for C. Zmijavci and 1.1 for Rudes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, C. Zmijavci are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.31 for Rudes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 0-2.

C. Zmijavci vs Rudes Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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