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Auda vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Auda

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tukums

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.4%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.3%1-19.0%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.1%4+-23.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 45.9% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda2.0

Tukums1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.00

TUKUMS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tukums (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Tukums 25%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Auda and 1.4 for Tukums (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Tukums. This match finished 2-1.

Auda vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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