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Milan U20 vs Cagliari U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Milan U20

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cagliari U20

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.3%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.3%1-19.3%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-17.0%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.1%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Milan U202.1

Cagliari U201.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MILAN U20 · PPG 1.29

CAGLIARI U20 · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Milan U20 (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cagliari U20 (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Milan U20 face Cagliari U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Milan U20 a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Cagliari U20 24%, so Milan U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Milan U20 and 1.1 for Cagliari U20 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Milan U20 are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.71 for Cagliari U20. This match finished 2-1.

Milan U20 vs Cagliari U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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