Today / China - Super League / Chongqing T. vs Qingdao West C.

Chongqing T. vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Chongqing T.

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Qingdao West C.

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 77.2% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a clear edge.

+45.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-10.7%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.6%1-12.4%1-20.3%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-14.0%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.6%3-14.6%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-033.5%4+-19.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.2% 53.2% 1.88 +45.1%

Draw 17.0% 29.4% 3.40 -42.2%

Away win 5.8% 26.3% 3.80 -78.0%

Over 2.5 60.5% 51.8% 1.93 +16.8%

Over 3.5 50.2% 29.9% 3.35 +68.2%

BTTS 39.6% 57.8% 1.73 -31.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 77% / xG 3.4-0.3 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 16.6%

#2 2–0 14.6%

#3 4–0 14.1%

#4 5–0 9.6%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing T.3.4

Qingdao West C.0.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING T. · PPG 2.50

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

60%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing T. (H) 77.2%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +45.1%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -42.2%

Qingdao West C. (A) 5.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -78.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing T. face Qingdao West C. in China - Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing T. a 77% chance, the draw 17% and Qingdao West C. 6%, so Chongqing T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Chongqing T. and 0.3 for Qingdao West C. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing T. are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Qingdao West C.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +68.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Chongqing T. vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions