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Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:30

Fiorentina

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sassuolo

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.1%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.2%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 52.1% 1.92 -19.6%

Draw 29.6% 29.9% 3.35 -0.8%

Away win 28.6% 25.0% 4.00 +14.4%

Over 2.5 50.9% 54.6% 1.83 -6.9%

Over 3.5 27.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.8%

BTTS 57.8% 59.9% 1.67 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0✓ 7.1%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina1.5

Sassuolo1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.13

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina (H) 41.9%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -19.6%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.8%

Sassuolo (A) 28.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina face Sassuolo in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Sassuolo 29%, so Fiorentina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fiorentina and 1.1 for Sassuolo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.19 for Sassuolo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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