Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction & Tips

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Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 34 Stadio Artemio Franchi· Florence Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:30

Fiorentina PPG 1.13

0-0 HIT CS3

Sassuolo PPG 1.19

Away· +14.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.9%

Odds: 1.92 EV: -19.6%

Draw 29.6%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -0.8%

Away 28.6%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +14.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.9% Odds: 1.83 -6.9%

Over 3.5 27.4% Odds: 3.00 -17.8%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.67 -3.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✔

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Fiorentina

1.50

Sassuolo

1.14

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -3.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+14.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -26.7%

Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.19)