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Europa vs Real Murcia Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Europa

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Real Murcia

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+26.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.0%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-19.8%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.4%3-16.2%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-14.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 43.5% 2.30 +26.3%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -19.3%

Away win 18.3% 33.3% 3.00 -45.1%

Over 2.5 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Over 3.5 28.4% 25.0% 4.00 +13.6%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Europa2.0

Real Murcia0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EUROPA · PPG 1.88

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Europa (H) 54.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +26.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.3%

Real Murcia (A) 18.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Europa face Real Murcia in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Europa a 55% chance, the draw 27% and Real Murcia 18%, so Europa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Europa and 0.7 for Real Murcia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Europa are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.19 for Real Murcia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Europa vs Real Murcia Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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