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Qingdao Hainiu vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 09:00

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 1.33 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shandong T.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-114.8%0-210.5%0-35.0%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.7%1-112.4%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.7%2-15.2%2-23.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.0%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 23.8% 4.20 +17.2%

Draw 31.7% 27.0% 3.70 +17.3%

Away win 40.3% 57.8% 1.73 -30.3%

Over 2.5 46.5% 59.9% 1.67 -22.4%

Over 3.5 19.3% 37.7% 2.65 -48.9%

BTTS 50.0% 62.5% 1.60 -20.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.0%

A 40% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Hainiu0.8

Shandong T.1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 1.33

SHANDONG T. · PPG 2.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Hainiu (H) 27.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +17.2%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +17.3%

Shandong T. (A) 40.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Hainiu face Shandong T. in China - Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Hainiu a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Shandong T. 40%, so Shandong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.4 for Shandong T. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Hainiu are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Shandong T.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Qingdao Hainiu vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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