Qingdao Hainiu vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

China - Super League Regular Season - 8 Qingdao Youth Football Stadium· Qingdao Sunday, April 26, 2026 09:00

Qingdao Hainiu PPG 1.33

4-1 MISS

Shandong T. PPG 2.00

Draw· +17.3% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Hainiu face Shandong T. in China - Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Hainiu a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Shandong T. 40%, so Shandong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.4 for Shandong T. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Hainiu are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Shandong T.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.9%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +17.2%

Draw 31.7%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +17.3%

Away 40.3%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -30.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: 1.67 -22.4%

Over 3.5 19.3% Odds: 2.65 -48.9%

BTTS 50.0% Odds: 1.60 -20.0%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Qingdao Hainiu

0.84

Shandong T.

1.42

Model SuggestionBTTS -20.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -20.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+17.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 23%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 65%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -11.2%

Bet Hit 50% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)