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Chernihiv vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 08:00

Chernihiv

PPG 1.55 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Vorskla Poltava

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-18.7%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.1%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-17.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.7%3-13.0%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% — — —

Draw 31.4% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 10.8% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.1%

#2 0–0 16.6%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chernihiv1.3

Vorskla Poltava0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHERNIHIV · PPG 1.55

VORSKLA POLTAVA · PPG 0.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.55) vs P(Home)=46.8%

Win probability 1X2

Chernihiv (H) 46.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vorskla Poltava (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chernihiv face Vorskla Poltava in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chernihiv a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Vorskla Poltava 22%, so Chernihiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chernihiv and 0.5 for Vorskla Poltava (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chernihiv are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.58 for Vorskla Poltava. This match finished 1-2.

Chernihiv vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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