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Slaven Belupo vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 15:45

Slaven Belupo

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Hajduk Split

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

Away 61% chance

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1% — a clear edge.

+17.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-111.4%0-212.1%0-38.6%0-4+7.5%1 1-04.3%1-19.1%1-29.7%1-36.9%1-4+6.0%2 2-01.7%2-13.6%2-23.9%2-32.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-21.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.9% 22.0% 4.55 -41.3%

Draw 19.2% 29.0% 3.45 -33.8%

Away win 68.0% 58.1% 1.72 +17.0%

Over 2.5 56.0% 51.3% 1.95 +9.2%

Over 3.5 33.6% 29.4% 3.40 +14.2%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob48.5%

A 68% / xG 0.8-2.1 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.1%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 0–3 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slaven Belupo0.8

Hajduk Split2.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 1.71

HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 1.93

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.93)

Win probability 1X2

Slaven Belupo (H) 12.9%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -41.3%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -33.8%

Hajduk Split (A) 68.0%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slaven Belupo face Hajduk Split in Croatia - HNL on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slaven Belupo a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Hajduk Split 68%, so Hajduk Split are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Slaven Belupo and 2.1 for Hajduk Split (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slaven Belupo are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.93 for Hajduk Split. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Slaven Belupo vs Hajduk Split Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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