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Ulsan vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 07:30

Ulsan

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.0%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.6%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.5%3-15.6%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 48.8% 2.05 +1.9%

Draw 28.5% 28.6% 3.50 -0.3%

Away win 21.8% 29.9% 3.35 -27.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

Over 3.5 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -23.7%

BTTS 50.1% 59.9% 1.67 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.1%

H 50% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 2–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan1.8

Daejeon Citizen0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN · PPG 1.75

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.9%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.3%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan face Daejeon Citizen in South-Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Daejeon Citizen 22%, so Ulsan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ulsan and 0.7 for Daejeon Citizen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 1-4.

Ulsan vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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