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Gwangju vs Anyang Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 07:30

Gwangju

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

2 – 5

FULL TIME

Anyang

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-119.1%0-211.9%0-35.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.6%1-112.0%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-03.0%2-13.8%2-22.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.6%3-10.8%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.1% 25.3% 3.95 +7.0%

Draw 32.1% 32.3% 3.10 -0.5%

Away win 40.8% 50.0% 2.00 -18.4%

Over 2.5 38.0% 42.6% 2.35 -10.7%

Over 3.5 12.2% 22.2% 4.50 -45.1%

BTTS 48.3% 50.0% 2.00 -3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.3%

A 41% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.1%

#2 0–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 0–2 11.9%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju0.6

Anyang1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU · PPG 1.33

ANYANG · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju (H) 27.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +7.0%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.5%

Anyang (A) 40.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju face Anyang in South-Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju a 27% chance, the draw 32% and Anyang 41%, so Anyang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gwangju and 1.3 for Anyang (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.20 for Anyang. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 2-5.

Gwangju vs Anyang Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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