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APIA Leichhardt vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 06:30

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

S George Saints

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.4%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.0%1-18.0%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.4%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-17.7%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 16.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 38.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 59% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 3–0 9.4%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt2.4

S George Saints0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 3.00

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt (H) 59.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S George Saints (A) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt face S George Saints in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt a 59% chance, the draw 24% and S George Saints 16%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for APIA Leichhardt and 0.8 for S George Saints (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.17 for S George Saints. This match finished 2-1.

APIA Leichhardt vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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