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Jeonbuk vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 05:00

Jeonbuk

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.0%0-112.0%0-22.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-023.0%1-110.6%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.2%2-14.7%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.0%3-11.4%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 52.6% 1.90 -23.4%

Draw 33.6% 29.4% 3.40 +14.2%

Away win 26.1% 24.4% 4.10 +7.0%

Over 2.5 24.2% 47.6% 2.10 -49.2%

Over 3.5 4.8% 26.0% 3.85 -81.5%

BTTS 39.6% 52.6% 1.90 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.0%

#2 1–0 23.0%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk0.9

Pohang Steelers0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.2% · O3.5 PROB 4.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK · PPG 1.50

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

40%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk (H) 40.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -23.4%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +14.2%

Pohang Steelers (A) 26.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk face Pohang Steelers in South-Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk a 40% chance, the draw 34% and Pohang Steelers 26%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jeonbuk and 0.5 for Pohang Steelers (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Jeonbuk vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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