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Rockdale vs St George City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 05:00

Rockdale

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

St George City

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.8%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-17.3%1-23.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-17.9%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-19.4%4+-24.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 16.7% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 46.4% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.5%

H 60% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–0 8.4%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rockdale2.6

St George City0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.50

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=60.3%

Win probability 1X2

Rockdale (H) 60.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

St George City (A) 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rockdale face St George City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rockdale a 60% chance, the draw 23% and St George City 17%, so Rockdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Rockdale and 0.9 for St George City (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rockdale are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.40 for St George City. This match finished 1-0.

Rockdale vs St George City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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