Today / Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa / Zira vs Neftci

Zira vs Neftci Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 15:30

Zira

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Neftci

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-113.2%0-29.2%0-34.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.2%1-112.7%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.4%2-16.1%2-24.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.4%3-12.0%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 35.7% 2.80 -26.6%

Draw 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -21.1%

Away win 46.6% 40.0% 2.50 +16.5%

Over 2.5 41.7% 42.6% 2.35 -2.0%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.1% 4.33 -8.6%

BTTS 46.4% 51.8% 1.93 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.4%

A 47% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.2%

#2 1–1✓ 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zira1.0

Neftci1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ZIRA · PPG 1.57

NEFTCI · PPG 1.92

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.57) vs Away GOOD (1.92)

Win probability 1X2

Zira (H) 26.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -26.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -21.1%

Neftci (A) 46.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zira face Neftci in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zira a 26% chance, the draw 27% and Neftci 47%, so Neftci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Zira and 1.4 for Neftci (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zira are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.92 for Neftci. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Zira vs Neftci Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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