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Turan vs Sumqayıt Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Turan

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

UPCOMING

Sumqayıt

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.2%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.0%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.3%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 65.4% 1.53 -29.8%

Draw 28.5% 28.6% 3.50 -0.1%

Away win 25.6% 18.2% 5.50 +24.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 48.8% 2.05 -12.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 28.6% 3.50 -16.1%

BTTS 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Home O1.5 38.4% 55.6% 1.80 -30.9%

Away O1.5 26.1% 22.7% 4.40 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Turan1.3

Sumqayıt0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TURAN · PPG 1.82

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Turan (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -29.8%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.1%

Sumqayıt (A) 25.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Turan face Sumqayıt in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Turan a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Sumqayıt 26%, so Turan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Turan and 0.9 for Sumqayıt (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Turan are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.25 for Sumqayıt. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +35.2%.

Turan vs Sumqayıt Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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