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Blacktown City vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 0.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.5%0-27.5%0-35.0%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.8%1-19.6%1-29.6%1-36.4%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.1%2-16.2%2-26.2%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 44.5% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.5%

A 44% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City1.3

NWS Spirit2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.20

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

NWS Spirit (A) 44.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face NWS Spirit in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 27% chance, the draw 28% and NWS Spirit 45%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Blacktown City and 2.0 for NWS Spirit (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.60 for NWS Spirit. This match finished 1-0.

Blacktown City vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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