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Belmont Swansea vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 05:00

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.67 · HOME

6 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kahibah

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.1%0-23.9%0-33.2%0-4+3.5%1 1-02.4%1-16.0%1-27.3%1-36.0%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.3%2-15.7%2-27.0%2-35.7%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.5%3-13.6%3-24.4%3-33.6%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.7%4+-23.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 55.6% 1.80 -36.6%

Draw 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Away win 40.4% 30.8% 3.25 +31.3%

Over 2.5 68.1% 71.4% 1.40 -4.7%

Over 3.5 63.4% — — —

BTTS 65.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob65.5%

A 40% / xG 1.9-2.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.3%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 1–3 6.0%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belmont Swansea1.9

Kahibah2.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 63.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.67

KAHIBAH · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Belmont Swansea (H) 35.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -36.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Kahibah (A) 40.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belmont Swansea face Kahibah in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belmont Swansea a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Kahibah 40%, so Kahibah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Belmont Swansea and 2.5 for Kahibah (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belmont Swansea are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Kahibah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 6-3.

Belmont Swansea vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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