Belmont Swansea vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Australia - Northern NSW NPL Regular Season - 9 Sunday, April 26, 2026 05:00

Belmont Swansea PPG 1.67

6-3 MISS

Kahibah PPG 2.00

Away· +31.3% ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Belmont Swansea face Kahibah in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belmont Swansea a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Kahibah 40%, so Kahibah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Belmont Swansea and 2.5 for Kahibah (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belmont Swansea are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Kahibah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 6-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.2%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -36.6%

Draw 24.4%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -2.4%

Away 40.4%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +31.3%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.1% Odds: 1.40 -4.7%

Over 3.5 63.4% Odds: — —

BTTS 65.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 2-2 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-3 ✘

5th 2-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Belmont Swansea

1.91

Kahibah

2.46

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -4.7% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-4.7%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5/Under 79%

BTTS/No 72%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 51.4%

Bet Hit 100% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)