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Sydney Utd vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 04:30

Sydney Utd

PPG 2.71 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-15.2%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.4%1-19.5%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.1%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-15.3%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-13.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 15.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.4% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.1%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Utd1.8

Wollongong W.0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 2.71

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Utd (H) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wollongong W. (A) 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Utd face Wollongong W. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Utd a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Wollongong W. 16%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sydney Utd and 0.6 for Wollongong W. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Utd are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.67 for Wollongong W.. This match finished 0-1.

Sydney Utd vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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