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Pumas UNAM W vs América W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 03:00

Pumas UNAM W

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

América W

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 76% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.2%0-25.6%0-35.1%0-4+6.5%1 1-02.3%1-16.2%1-28.3%1-37.4%1-4+9.6%2 2-01.7%2-14.5%2-26.1%2-35.5%2-4+7.1%3 3-00.8%3-12.2%3-23.0%3-32.7%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.1%4+-21.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% 12.5% 8.00 +51.4%

Draw 18.6% 20.0% 5.00 -4.2%

Away win 58.2% 80.0% 1.25 -27.3%

Over 2.5 72.6% 76.9% 1.30 -5.6%

Over 3.5 50.9% 57.8% 1.73 -11.9%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 29.4% 3.40 +35.7%

Away O1.5 69.2% 80.0% 1.25 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 19%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.5%

A 58% / xG 1.5-2.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 8.3%

#2 1–3 7.4%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 2–1 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pumas UNAM W1.5

América W2.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PUMAS UNAM W · PPG 1.60

AMÉRICA W · PPG 2.18

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

76%

DANGER

xG gap -1.22 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Pumas UNAM W (H) 23.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +51.4%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -4.2%

América W (A) 58.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pumas UNAM W face América W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pumas UNAM W a 23% chance, the draw 19% and América W 58%, so América W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pumas UNAM W and 2.7 for América W (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pumas UNAM W are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.18 for América W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +82.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Pumas UNAM W vs América W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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