Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Charlestown A. vs Valentine

Charlestown A. vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 03:00

Charlestown A.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Valentine

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-15.3%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.4%1-19.3%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.1%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.4%3-14.7%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-13.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 71.4% 1.40 -20.8%

Draw 27.7% 25.0% 4.00 +10.8%

Away win 15.7% 14.3% 7.00 +9.9%

Over 2.5 45.4% — — —

Over 3.5 19.1% — — —

BTTS 48.3% 54.1% 1.85 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 2–0 16.1%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlestown A.1.7

Valentine0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 2.00

VALENTINE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Charlestown A. (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -20.8%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +10.8%

Valentine (A) 15.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlestown A. face Valentine in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlestown A. a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Valentine 16%, so Charlestown A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Charlestown A. and 0.5 for Valentine (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlestown A. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Valentine. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Charlestown A. vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Northern NSW NPL Predictions