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Vancouver vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 02:30

Vancouver

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Colorado Rapids

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Home 75% chance

Model probability 74.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-10.6%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.5%1-12.5%1-20.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.1%2-15.1%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.4%3-16.8%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-027.6%4+-120.0%4+-27.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.1% 75.2% 1.33 -1.5%

Draw 19.1% 18.9% 5.30 +1.2%

Away win 6.8% 13.2% 7.60 -48.3%

Over 2.5 69.5% 70.4% 1.42 -1.3%

Over 3.5 69.6% 47.6% 2.10 +46.2%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 74% / xG 4.0-0.7 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 9.5%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 5–0 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 4–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vancouver4.0

Colorado Rapids0.7

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.5% · O3.5 PROB 69.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VANCOUVER · PPG 2.57

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

75%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.57), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vancouver (H) 74.1%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -1.5%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +1.2%

Colorado Rapids (A) 6.8%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV -48.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vancouver face Colorado Rapids in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vancouver a 74% chance, the draw 19% and Colorado Rapids 7%, so Vancouver are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Vancouver and 0.7 for Colorado Rapids (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vancouver are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.80 for Colorado Rapids. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Vancouver vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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