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Seattle vs Dallas Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 02:30

Seattle

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dallas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-14.9%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.1%1-19.3%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.2%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-15.5%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-14.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 61.3% 1.63 -7.7%

Draw 27.7% 25.3% 3.95 +9.4%

Away win 15.7% 20.4% 4.90 -23.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

Over 3.5 23.4% 38.2% 2.62 -38.7%

BTTS 49.5% 60.6% 1.65 -18.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.2%

#2 1–0 16.1%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle1.9

Dallas0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE · PPG 3.00

DALLAS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Seattle (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -7.7%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +9.4%

Dallas (A) 15.7%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle face Dallas in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Dallas 16%, so Seattle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Seattle and 0.6 for Dallas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Dallas. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Seattle vs Dallas Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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