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Inter Miami vs New England Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 23:30

Inter Miami

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

New England

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+19.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.1%0-22.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-02.9%1-15.5%1-25.2%1-33.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.8%2-17.2%2-26.8%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-03.3%3-16.2%3-25.9%3-33.7%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-17.6%4+-27.1%4+-34.5%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 73.5% 1.36 -26.8%

Draw 18.5% 20.6% 4.85 -10.3%

Away win 27.7% 13.0% 7.70 +113.3%

Over 2.5 82.5% 69.0% 1.45 +19.6%

Over 3.5 65.5% 47.6% 2.10 +37.5%

BTTS 78.5% 61.7% 1.62 +27.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob78.5%

H 54% / xG 2.6-1.9 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 3–1 6.2%

#4 3–2 5.9%

#5 1–1✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Miami2.6

New England1.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.5% · O3.5 PROB 65.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MIAMI · PPG 1.00

NEW ENGLAND · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Inter Miami (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -26.8%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -10.3%

New England (A) 27.7%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +113.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Miami face New England in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Miami a 54% chance, the draw 19% and New England 28%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Inter Miami and 1.9 for New England (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Miami are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for New England. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +113.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Inter Miami vs New England Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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