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DC United vs Orlando City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 23:30

DC United

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orlando City

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+25.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.7%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.2%1-18.5%1-23.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-17.4%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-17.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 54.3% 1.84 +25.3%

Draw 18.2% 27.4% 3.65 -33.6%

Away win 13.7% 25.3% 3.95 -45.9%

Over 2.5 62.3% 58.8% 1.70 +5.9%

Over 3.5 40.1% 35.7% 2.80 +12.3%

BTTS 54.2% 61.7% 1.62 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.2%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 9.2%

#4 1–1 8.5%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC United2.3

Orlando City0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DC UNITED · PPG 1.00

ORLANDO CITY · PPG 0.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

DC United (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +25.3%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -33.6%

Orlando City (A) 13.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -45.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC United face Orlando City in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC United a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Orlando City 14%, so DC United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for DC United and 0.9 for Orlando City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC United are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Orlando City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 3-2.

DC United vs Orlando City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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