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Columbus Crew vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 23:30

Columbus Crew

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Philadelphia

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.9%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-110.7%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.8%3-16.0%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 55.2% 1.81 +7.9%

Draw 22.6% 27.0% 3.70 -16.4%

Away win 17.8% 24.4% 4.10 -27.0%

Over 2.5 50.9% 55.6% 1.80 -8.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.1%

#2 2–0✓ 11.1%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew1.8

Philadelphia0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.25

PHILADELPHIA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +7.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -16.4%

Philadelphia (A) 17.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face Philadelphia in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Philadelphia 18%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Columbus Crew and 0.9 for Philadelphia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.80 for Philadelphia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Columbus Crew vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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