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Cincinnati vs New York RB Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 23:30

Cincinnati

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

New York RB

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 79% chance

Combined xG of 7.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 97.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+35.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-00.4%1-11.1%1-21.4%1-31.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-00.9%2-12.3%2-23.0%2-32.6%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.3%3-13.4%3-24.4%3-33.8%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-112.3%4+-216.0%4+-313.8%4+-4+16.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 55.2% 1.81 +22.7%

Draw 13.3% 24.4% 4.10 -45.5%

Away win 18.8% 27.4% 3.65 -31.4%

Over 2.5 97.0% 71.4% 1.40 +35.8%

Over 3.5 91.6% 50.0% 2.00 +83.2%

BTTS 91.4% 72.5% 1.38 +26.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob91.4%

H 68% / xG 4.4-2.6 / O2.5 97% / BTTS 91%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–2 4.8%

#2 3–2 4.4%

#3 5–2 4.2%

#4 4–3 4.2%

#5 3–3 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cincinnati4.4

New York RB2.6

COMBINED 7.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 97.0% · O3.5 PROB 91.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CINCINNATI · PPG 1.75

NEW YORK RB · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

79%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Cincinnati (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +22.7%

Draw 13.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -45.5%

New York RB (A) 18.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cincinnati face New York RB in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cincinnati a 68% chance, the draw 13% and New York RB 19%, so Cincinnati are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Cincinnati and 2.6 for New York RB (7.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-2. There is a 97% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 91% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cincinnati are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for New York RB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +83.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Cincinnati vs New York RB Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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