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Libertad vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 18 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 23:00

Libertad

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Olimpia

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-116.4%0-28.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.7%1-113.2%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.1%2-15.3%2-22.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.4%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 29.9% 3.35 -7.5%

Draw 32.0% 31.7% 3.15 +0.8%

Away win 40.4% 47.2% 2.12 -14.3%

Over 2.5 28.4% 46.5% 2.15 -38.9%

Over 3.5 11.7% 25.3% 3.95 -53.8%

BTTS 35.9% 54.6% 1.83 -34.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob35.9%

A 40% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.4%

#2 0–0 15.7%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad0.8

Olimpia1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.4% · O3.5 PROB 11.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 1.75

OLIMPIA · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.5%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +0.8%

Olimpia (A) 40.4%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face Olimpia in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Olimpia 40%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Libertad and 1.0 for Olimpia (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.38 for Olimpia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Libertad vs Olimpia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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