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Nacional vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 22:00

Nacional

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Danubio

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.83)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.0%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.8%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 18.9% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.5% — — —

BTTS 50.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.5%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 10.8%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.8

Danubio0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 1.40

DANUBIO · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 58.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Danubio (A) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face Danubio in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Danubio 19%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nacional and 0.9 for Danubio (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.83 for Danubio. This match finished 1-2.

Nacional vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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