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Trujillanos vs D. La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 20:00

Trujillanos

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

D. La Guaira

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-122.7%0-217.3%0-38.8%0-4+4.7%1 1-05.6%1-18.6%1-26.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.8%2 2-01.1%2-11.6%2-21.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.9% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 66.3% — — —

Over 2.5 29.9% — — —

Over 3.5 12.7% — — —

BTTS 24.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob24.8%

A 66% / xG 0.4-1.5 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 22.7%

#2 0–2 17.3%

#3 0–0 14.8%

#4 0–3 8.8%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trujillanos0.4

D. La Guaira1.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRUJILLANOS · PPG 0.50

D. LA GUAIRA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Trujillanos (H) 8.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

D. La Guaira (A) 66.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Trujillanos face D. La Guaira in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trujillanos a 9% chance, the draw 25% and D. La Guaira 66%, so D. La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Trujillanos and 1.5 for D. La Guaira (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 25% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trujillanos are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.00 for D. La Guaira. This match finished 0-1.

Trujillanos vs D. La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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