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Metropolitanos vs Carabobo Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 6 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 21:00

Metropolitanos

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

Carabobo

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-111.9%0-24.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.3%2-17.2%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 38.5% 2.60 +0.9%

Draw 33.5% 32.3% 3.10 +3.9%

Away win 27.6% 38.5% 2.60 -16.9%

Over 2.5 34.0% 45.5% 2.20 -25.2%

Over 3.5 18.6% 25.0% 4.00 -15.4%

BTTS 46.1% 54.6% 1.83 -15.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 37.7% 2.65 -20.0%

Away O1.5 18.4% 37.7% 2.65 -30.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.1%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metropolitanos1.1

Carabobo0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

METROPOLITANOS · PPG 2.00

CARABOBO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=38.8%

Win probability 1X2

Metropolitanos (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +0.9%

Draw 33.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +3.9%

Carabobo (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metropolitanos face Carabobo in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metropolitanos a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Carabobo 28%, so Metropolitanos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Metropolitanos and 0.8 for Carabobo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metropolitanos are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Carabobo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 1-5.

Metropolitanos vs Carabobo Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions