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Portuguesa vs D. La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 5 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:00

Portuguesa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

D. La Guaira

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-115.4%0-25.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-112.9%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.0%2-15.4%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.0%3-11.5%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 35.1% 2.85 +6.0%

Draw 35.7% 33.9% 2.95 +5.3%

Away win 27.0% 40.8% 2.45 -20.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 42.6% 2.35 -17.8%

Over 3.5 8.0% 23.1% 4.33 -39.2%

BTTS 46.2% 51.8% 1.93 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

H 37% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 1–0 16.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 15.4%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portuguesa0.8

D. La Guaira0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTUGUESA · PPG 2.00

D. LA GUAIRA · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

Portuguesa (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +6.0%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +5.3%

D. La Guaira (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portuguesa face D. La Guaira in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portuguesa a 37% chance, the draw 36% and D. La Guaira 27%, so Portuguesa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Portuguesa and 0.8 for D. La Guaira (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portuguesa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.89 for D. La Guaira. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Portuguesa vs D. La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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